Methodology of seismic hazard assessment

Methodology of seismic hazard assessment

A fundamentally new methodology for calculating seismic hazard has been developed, which makes it possible to calculate seismic hazard in settlements located within the radius of a group of seismic zones and to build a map of seismic zoning of large territories. A cluster analysis has been used to identify seismic zones. The Markov model of seismicity has been developed, which allows forecasting the location and magnitude of possible earthquakes in seismic zones. A statistical connection between Balkan seismic zones has been studied. Mathematical methods have been used to approximate the macroseismic field with second-order curves and to identify the ellipticity of the macroseismic field using the example of subcortical Vrancea earthquakes. A statistical analysis of the macroseismic field was carried out, a model of attenuation of the earthquake intensity was compiled and regional values of the attenuation equation coefficients were determined using the example of Granch earthquakes.